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Goldman Sachs: AI Added 'Basically Zero' to US GDP Growth in 2025

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius reveals AI investment added 'basically zero' to US GDP growth in 2025. Most AI spending went to chip imports from Taiwan and Korea, with limited direct impact on the US economy.

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Sobering Analysis


Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius revealed that despite massive AI investments by tech companies, the contribution to US GDP growth in 2025 was 'basically zero.'


Why No GDP Impact?


  • Most AI investment goes to purchasing chips from Nvidia, AMD, etc.
  • These chips are manufactured in Taiwan (TSMC) and Korea
  • As a result, AI investment contributes to Taiwan and Korea's GDP
  • Domestic US value creation remains limited

  • Other Banks Agree


    Economists at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have reached similar conclusions.


    Outlook


  • Measurable US economic impact expected from around 2027
  • Time lag before AI-driven productivity gains flow through to the real economy
  • Washington Post reports: 'AI economic growth may be a mirage'

  • Investor Implications


    The fact that massive AI investments are not translating to short-term GDP growth could impact valuations of AI-related stocks.

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